UK Diplomats Advised Regarding Armed Intervention to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released papers show that the Foreign Office cautioned against British military action to remove the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".

Government Documents Reveal Deliberations on Addressing a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator

Internal documents from the then Prime Minister's government show officials weighed up options on how best to handle the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old dictator, who declined to leave office as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential courses of action.

Isolation Strategy Considered Not Working

Officials agreed that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and forging an international consensus for change was failing, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Options outlined in the files included:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the approach supported by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from conflicts abroad that altering a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Significant Losses and Jurisdictional Barriers

It cautioned that military intervention would cause heavy casualties and have "serious consequences" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a major humanitarian and political disaster – resulting in widespread bloodshed, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we judge that no African state would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The paper adds: "Nor do we judge that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or join military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Advocated

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been ruled out, "it is likely necessary that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We should work out a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then afterwards, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a clear understanding."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise Thabo Mbeki into joining a military coalition to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the ex-British leader.